Yesterday we focused on the inconsistencies of the Patriots offense. And although the consensus is that there's a feeling of doubt following the offense's fourth quarter struggles, there's no denying they are a top 5 offense in the league week to week. Unfortunately, when looking at the Patriots defense, this minuscule sense of panic turns into full fledged uproar.
Let's come right out and say it. This Patriots defense is bad. I mean, really bad.
Statistically speaking, it could be worse. New England is 23rd in the league in yards per game, averaging 376 yards per performance. Jerod Mayo leads the league in tackles. So, uh, yeah. From there, the story gets worse. New England ranks 29th in passing yards allowed, allowing 290 yards a game. Thankfully they only allow 86 yards a game in the run department, good for 9th in the league.
Unfortunately, these statistics are on par with prior seasons. For the last 3 years, New England's defense has consistently rolled out the doormat for below-average to average quarterbacks, turning them into the second coming of Terry Bradshaw. Realistically, the only reason the Patriots aren't dead last in all categories is because the offense possesses the ball for long periods of time.
So what is the reason for the struggle?
Most Patriots fans won't want to hear what I believe the answer is. The answer lies within Bill Belichick. Long regarded as a defensive guru, Belichick has failed to produce a competent defense which can carry the offense at points throughout the season.
Some writers around the region have pointed to Belichick's draft-day failures as a reason the defense is so porous, but I don't quite see it. This defense has talent across the board. Devin McCourty has the physical tools to be successful, and had a great rookie season. Jerod Mayo consistently contends with the league leaders in tackles, and Brandon Spikes is one of the best run stopping linebackers in the league. The Patriots drafted two rookies in Chandler Jones and Donta Hightower who clearly display they have the requisite talent to compete in the NFL. Throw in Vince Wilfork and the emerging Kyle Love, and this team has positional talent.
So why can't they play as a unit?
Simply put, I don't believe the scheme in place allows this team to be successful. Time to delve into the X's and O's for a minute.
When you look at the Patriots defense, they keep things extremely basic. Rarely do you see pressure brought from a blitzing linebacker or safety, and before the snap there isn't much movement. What this means is that the opposing quarterback can read the defense at the line of scrimmage, make his own adjustments based on what is thrown at him, and not have to worry about a disguise from New England. One of the staples of Bill Belichick's defenses during the "Super Bowl Era" was their ability to confuse quarterbacks. There is perhaps no bigger example than Belichick's dominance over Peyton Manning earlier in his career.
Now? The Patriots generally stay in a basic cover-2. Rarely does Belichick allow his cornerbacks to play man to man defense. The linebackers almost always drop deeper into coverage, opening up the flats for running backs and tight ends on release-routes. The idea behind this approach is to make the opposing offense earn it, keeping the ball in front of the defense. This is why the Patriots are much stronger in the red zone, because they have less ground to cover and can come up and play tighter defense.
I'm not sure if many of you noticed, but there were times that Belichick's safeties lined up outside your television picture against the Jets this past weekend. Sometimes Tavon Wilson was as far as 25 yards away from the line of scrimmage. Trying to find New England's safeties in coverage has been similar to playing the NFL version of Where's Waldo? On the snap, the safeties rarely came up to the ball, opening up the middle of the field.
The result? While we didn't see many 50 yard pass plays like in Seattle, we saw Mark Sanchez of all people completing 20 yard strikes over the middle. Belichick's defense essentially asks linebackers such as Jerod Mayo and Brandon Spikes to turn into coverage linebackers on pass plays. Not exactly an endearing title for two guys who are much stronger against the run.
My opinion is that this defensive mentality is setting the Patriots up for failure. If the team doesn't bring more than 4 or 5 rushers each pass play, they're essentially asking Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich to single-handedly disrupt the quarterback on every play. There is zero aggressiveness from the defense, zero identity. After all, the whole design of the defense is to take away the big play. The only problem is that New England leads the league in 20 yard pass plays allowed, at 38. 38. In 7 games. It's not working.
Unfortunately, with the defense playing with the schemes and mentalities they are taught, the secondary is set up for failure. It doesn't help that you often ask Patrick Chung to turn into a coverage safety to help out the corners. If you haven't noticed, Patrick Chung gets lost in coverage all the time. In fact, it's more surprising when Chung actually shows up on time for a play.
Moving forward, I believe the ideal set-up is Devin McCourty and Stephen Gregory at safety once he returns from injury, with Alfonzo Dennard and some combination of Kyle Arrington and Ras-I Dowling on the outside. This team is not talented enough to sit back and wait for quarterbacks to throw anymore. If the Patriots want to stop opposing offenses, they'll need to make a decision. Do we get more creative up front? Or do we simply play Russian Roulette on every play, hoping that the quarterback doesn't find one of three to four open receivers.
Time to regain your title as a defensive guru, Bill.
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