As I mentioned last week, the Patriots are in a bit of an identity crisis. And while the problem is two-fold, I've chosen to focus first on the offense. The bread and butter of the New England Patriots is their offensive attack. This is no secret, as New England has survived solely due to their offensive prowess for the better part of the last 5 seasons.
But 2012 has presented fans and critics alike with new firepower. For the first time in what seems like ages, the Patriots don't really know what they are.
Are the Patriots still a prolific passing team? Tom Brady is maintaining stats on-par with his usual performances, but the crispness expected in the offensive performance has eluded the grasp of both Tom Brady and Josh McDaniels, who we'll get to in a bit.
Or are the Patriots better off running the football? Stevan Ridley is 7th in the league with 589 yards, averaging 4.4 yards a carry, and has the most first downs of any running back in the league. The Patriots are the 5th best rushing team in the league, and 3rd in the league in passing.
On the surface, there doesn't seem to be much of a problem. Most fans wouldn't mind a top-5 offense. But in New England, where defensive players come to die, the offense needs to be exceptional at all times. Perhaps that is why the failures have been placed under such a microscope. Due to the defensive ineptitude, New England can't afford miscues on offense.
I also believe that there's been a lot of pressure placed on Tom Brady. Pressure is all relative, but Brady has shown cracks in an armor which used to shake off pressure packed situations as if they were a walk in the park. Look no further than the Patriots 4th quarter production in their last 3 games. New England has scored just 6 points opposed to the 34 their opponents have put up.
It leads me to believe that proclamations of the Patriots demise are far too premature. For the most part, New England's offense has done its part. Double digit leads heading into the 4th quarters of the past two games show an ability to get out in front of opposing defenses.
But what's startling is the focus of the passing offense has shifted dramatically. If 2011 was the year of the tight end, 2012 is the year of Tom Brady's receivers. Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd lead the team in targets. However, whereas Welker has his usual 54 receptions on 74 targets, getting the ball to Brandon Lloyd has proven to be a significant struggle.
Lloyd has caught just 35 of the 65 passes thrown to him resulting in a 53% completion rate. This is the worst completion rate to any receiver on the team with more than 15 targets. Now let that sink in. The receiver who is the 2nd highest targeted receiver on your roster just so happens to be the most difficult to complete passes to. And while Lloyd does play on the outside, it highlights a bad habit that offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels needs to kick.
Stop forcing the issue.
Lloyd is a microcosm of the bigger problems in New England. McDaniels knows he has a special offense in New England. They run the best hurry up offense in the league and may have the best collection of offensive playmakers in the league. But so far in 2012, McDaniels has attempted to force the ball to Lloyd when the offense could easily go in other directions.
McDaniels also leaves a lot to be desired in terms of 4th quarter game management. To me at least, the Patriots are giving up downs. So many times do we see a first down run followed by the hurry up offense, only to run a stretch run into a stacked line of scrimmage for a yard or two. This creates a 3rd and long situation, which has never been the strong suit. Or Brady will begin to find his rhythm moving the ball on intermediate routes, only to throw two sideline comebacks and then a go-route down the field on another 3rd and long.
When, or maybe if, the Patriots can get back to playing sound offensive football, they'll be in much better shape. Enough with the gimmicky hurry-up to try and out-will your opponent. Not only does this not work against top-10 defenses, but its a style of play which simply isn't consistent in highly contested games. I think the struggles of New England in recent playoff games is enough to prove that.
To answer earlier questions, the Patriots are not a running football team. They're also not a team which operates to the sidelines and down the field. Wes Welker is the best slot receiver on the field, and Brady has two dynamic tight ends to work the middle of the field with. Is Brandon Lloyd a commodity outside the numbers? Yes. But he should be used as just that, a complementary piece to an offense which already knows their strength. Is Stevan Ridley a talented running back? Yes. But not when he's running against fronts that know the run is coming. The Patriots are good enough at running the ball to use it as a change of pace, but nothing more than that.
New England can be a dominant team again. Getting back to what works is a good start, and let the rest follow. They've developed a deep threat in Lloyd and a run game to use in certain situations, which will help out down the road. But that's not what the Patriots are. And it's time to stop acting like it.
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