Have you ever been asked to follow up an impossible-to-outdo situation?
We've all been there before,whether at work or at school. For me, it would be trying to sell a golf club after a fellow employee locked down a jaw-dropping sale. There's also always that one classmate who makes a full-video presentation when the professor or teacher simply asked for three PowerPoint slides. And don't forget showing your face at the dinner table after your little sister unloaded the dishwasher, walked the dog, and set the table while you took a 2 hour nap.
The Boston Red Sox are having trouble outdoing themselves. More specifically, General Manager Ben Cherington has yet to find a pitcher to secure the ninth inning quite like folk-hero Jonathan Papelbon.
Following Papelbon is no simple task. The oft-opinionated, irish jig dancing, flame throwing right-hander endured his ups and downs in Boston, much like many of the other polarizing athletes to pass through town. Papelbon won a World Series, immortalized "Shipping up to Boston," and left town in a hurry. In many aspects, Papelbon enjoyed the current life-cycle of many Boston athletes. Times of joy, hardship, and ultimately a bitter departure.
And while Papelbon had his moments of ineffectiveness in Boston, far and wide he was dependable.
The same cannot be said for anyone who's attempted to close games since.
In 2012, six pitchers recorded a save for Boston. This season, through 34 games, the Red Sox have anointed Junichi Tazawa the newest member of the illustrious "closer by committee," following both Andrew Bailey and Joel Hanrahan. Third times the charm, right?
ESPN Boston stat-guru Jeremy Lundblad summed up Boston's closer woes nicely, highlighting how difficult the ninth inning has been.
Red Sox have converted 61% of saves since 2012. Jonathan Papelbon? 92%A season ago, seven different pitchers blew saves for the Red Sox, mainly because Bobby Valentine was forced to cycle through closers as if they were socks.
— Jeremy Lundblad (@JLundbladESPN) May 9, 2013
There were ups as well as plenty of downs for Boston. Initially, Andrew Bailey looked to be the back-end of the rotation, only to (shockingly) spend most of the season hampered by an injury. There was Mark Melancon, who lost his first two appearances in Boston and was sent down to the minors for over a month following an appearance in Texas where he allowed three homers, six earned runs, and failed to record an out. And let's not forget the Alfredo Aceves experience, which included 10 losses, eight blown saves, and a 5.36 ERA.
In that span, Josh Reddick (Bailey trade) mashed 32 homers and Jed Lowrie (Melancon deal) hit 16 more, throwing salt on the wounds of Cherington.
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| Jonathan Papelbon's success in Philly makes it all the more painful for Red Sox Nation. |
Fittingly, Hanrahan is in the midst of a loss season, as news broke today that he'll be placed on the 60-day disabled list and has plans to visit Dr. James Andrews, a seemingly giant red flag in terms of Hanrahan's future health. It's not as if his performance on the field has gone any better, as Hanrahan's blown two saves in 9 games and currently owns a 9.81 ERA.
As the vultures circle around team offices in Boston, Junichi Tazawa will attempt to end the frustration in a stretched out and overworked bullpen. Tazawa, who has one career save, has the physical tools to succeed and I personally believe he'll make a fantastic closer one day. But it also returns us to the performance of an old friend, Jonathan Papelbon. Let's have fun with numbers for a second.
In 2012, the big three of Bailey, Aceves, and Melancon combined for..
3-13, 6.20 ERA, 32 saves, 12 blown saves, while allowing 21 home runs and posting a 4.29 xFIP.
And while those numbers are slightly skewed due to appearances outside of the 9th inning, it gives a general ballpark for the production of those three relievers. In comparison, Jonathan Papelbon posted...
5-6, 2.44 ERA, 38 saves, only four blown saves, and a xFIP of 2.79.
Combined, the Red Sox paid the three relievers $5.6 million a season ago, while the Phillies paid $11 million to Papelbon in the first year of a 4 year-$50 million pact.
Of course, in addition to the theory of declining performance, the Red Sox let Papelbon walk because of the length and money total of his contract. The team saved $5.4 million a season ago, but needed two extra roster spots to fill a job which could have been filled by Papelbon in a much more effective manner.
This season, while still premature, seems to be headed down the same path of poor value in the Red Sox bullpen.
Hanrahan is scheduled to make $7.04 million in a contract year while Bailey will make $4.1 million and is eligible for arbitration next season. Currently, the two have combined for a 1-1 record with a 5.64 ERA, nine saves and three blown saves. Both have missed time due to injury.
Papelbon will make $13 million for a Phillies team struggling to stay afloat. His performance has been affected accordingly, as he's appeared in only 13 games and had only five save opportunities. Still, the biggest knock on Papelbon has been his inability to pitch outside of save situations. This season, he currently has a 1.38 ERA over only 13 innings.
Hindsight is certainly 20/20. But in his short tenure in Boston, Ben Cherington has struggled to effectively find a pitcher who can assume ninth inning duties. Each pitcher who closes for John Farrell places more of an emphasis on a missed opportunity in old friend Jonathan Papelbon.
Now, with Hanrahan already facing the crossroads in potentially his only season in Boston, Cherington yet again must find a way to rectify a crumbling bullpen. And as the relievers come and go from Pawtucket and the waiver wire is scoured intently, Cherington must deal with the haunting idea that his solution left two winters ago.
Editors Note: Daniel Malone brings up a great point as well.
@mark_chiarelli And don't forget how they Joba'd Papelbon's heir apparent, Daniel Bard.
— Daniel Malone (@Daniel_Malone) May 9, 2013
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