The world is ending for the Patriots, right? Back-to-back weeks of poor performances, one more week before the playoffs, and a chance at a first round bye seriously in doubt. With tomorrow's match-up against the Dolphins being a potential precursor to their playoff success, I thought it would be a good idea to take a look at this team heading into the playoffs.
For starters, I don't believe last week against the Jaguars is any representation of the team heading into the playoffs. Many underestimated the effectiveness of Brandon Spikes, Alfonzo Dennard, and Aqib Talib. Of course, two of those names were not considered at the beginning of the season, which highlights how flimsy the defense is.
What's concerning is the Patriots simply have not shown they have overcome many of the problems which plague them each year in the playoffs, even during Super Bowl runs.
Tom Brady is the catalyst to this team. Say what you want about the improved running game, but against high level defenses, Stevan Ridley is not a reliable option. Ridley struggles against physical fronts with aggressive linebackers, essentially rendering him a non factor against the Bengals, Texans, and Ravens in the playoffs. Despite the improved running game, the success will lie in Danny Woodhead's ability to complement Brady out of the backfield.
Now this may sound crazy, and it may not even get a chance on the field, but I believe Danny Woodhead is the "giant killer" of the three running backs. And by that, I mean you can use Danny Woodhead against teams who pride themselves against stopping the run. Woodhead picked up 15 carries against the Ravens, 47 yards against the Broncos, and 61 yards with two scores against the 49ers. He's not a 25 carry player, but he's someone who get's lost behind his lineman and has the ability to get 3-4 yards a carry to jump start a sputtering offense.
What's worrisome is that the offense still shows general flaws which continue to haunt them against strong teams, and in the playoffs. For whatever reason, Patriots teams in big games still find a way to give up pressure to Tom Brady. In his last 3 games, Brady has been hit more than he had been previously all season. And the one thing Brady cannot handle is pressure in his face. I constantly hear that Brady is "great against 5 man pressures" which is accurate, but most pundits conveniently like to forget that Brady does not like pressure up the middle.
Teams who can generate pressure with 4 men will consistently be Brady's kryptonite, especially those who can do it with defensive tackles. Again, the Bengals are a team to watch in the playoffs. They have one of the best defensive lineman in the game with Geno Atkins, two 10+ sack guys, and are winners of 6 of their last 7. They play physical coverage, and have big wide receivers who will give Patriots CB's problems.
I believe the offensive will falter in the playoffs, it's all a matter of when. It may not be week 1 depending on the matchup, but an "offensive juggernaut" will not be able to function at a high level for an entire playoff.
Because of this, the onus will fall on the defense. A scary thought for many. This is where I believe the Patriots will crash and burn, because I feel the false-confidence in the defense will be short lived against talented offenses. This team still struggles in coverage, does not generate pressure well when asked to just bring 4 men, and recently proven to be surprisingly inconsistent against the run game.
That spells a recipe for disaster.
The only reason the Patriots defense has "won games" this year is because they've won the turnover differential by a wide margin. They are opportunistic, and if you make horrific mistakes, they will make you pay. However, against talented teams, mistakes will be few and far between. Do you believe Peyton Manning's Denver Broncos will be careless with the ball? I don't, and the idea of Manning flinging the pigskin around against the Patriots all Sunday afternoon is downright scary.
I don't think the Patriots will make it to the Super Bowl. In fact, I think they're hoping they don't have to play the Cincinnati Bengals in round 1, which could provide for a similar letdown like the Baltimore Ravens debacle of 2010. New England is on a crash course with the Broncos, which will make for compelling TV. But I don't believe New England is playing efficient, consistent football right now.
Unfortunately, 2012 will end as another year just a bit too short, which neither Tom Brady or Bill Belichick can afford as their careers wind to a close.
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