First and foremost, I'd like to apologize for not getting my thoughts out on the Red Sox winter earlier. School has decided to drop a load of work on me this week, making it difficult to do some writing just for fun. Thankfully, we've cleared that hurdle and it should be smooth sailing up until finals.
Over in New York there's been little news. In Boston, the stove's been turned up to full throttle, with the Red Sox being linked to virtually every possible free agent and trade scenario at the 2012 Winter Meetings. This has brought both plenty of fun and plenty of agony, as commander in chief Ben Cherington has shown a propensity to swing big deals in only his second season at the helm.
So far, Cherington has done some things well (Jonny Gomes, David Ross), made the somewhat obvious move (Mike Napoli), and potentially made a large mistake (Shane Victorino). Lets take a look at each move independently.
Mike Napoli
Napoli is a move I thought had to be made from the beginning of the off-season. He fills a gigantic need, 1B, and provides some thump to a lineup that suddenly looked very weak compared to other American League teams. I like Napoli as a player, if for no other reason than every time he's faced Boston, he's mashed. Napoli is a career .306 hitter in Fenway Park, adding a .710 slugging percentage, a ridiculously high .404 in isolated power, and an OPS north of 1.
He also provides versatility, which I believe is a factor overlooked by many Red Sox fans. One of the big goals of Cherington and co. was to bring in players who provided depth in multiple options. Napoli can play first, catch, and even DH. Jonny Gomes can play both corner outfield positions, and Victorino can slide over to center field without a hitch. This helps combat the injury bug which has plagued the Red Sox each of the last three seasons.
My main concern with Napoli is the money, coupled with how severe of a drop off his stats took last year. Napoli regressed significantly, and was rewarded with a 3 year deal worth $39 million. But in the end, what can you do? The market is so inflated that a right handed bat with power will cost you.
Shane Victorino
As much as I feel the Mike Napoli signing will work out in Boston, I struggle to comprehend the Shane Victorino signing. I understand he's a switch hitter, I understand he's versatile, and I understand he's a strong defensive glove. What I DON'T understand is how a 32 year old outfielder with deteriorating skills can command a 3 year deal, also worth 39 million.
Now I don't know if the rumor that Cody Ross wanted 3 years 25 million is true. For arguments sake, we'll say that's a rough ballpark of a contract Cody Ross would get. Can someone help me understand how Victorino is a better option? Sure, he's a left handed bat. He also hit .229 against right handers last year and is notoriously better facing left handed pitching.
Best case scenario for Victorino is that he uses his ability to hit for power in the gaps and carves out a niche in Boston, securing the bottom half of the lineup. His career averages indicate he's quietly pretty decent at hitting for power, and should still be somewhat of a threat on the base paths.
Worst case? The Red Sox just paid 39 million for a platoon player. By year 2 of this contract, Victorino could easily struggle to start every day in Boston, especially if he shows a lack of plate discipline like he did in Los Angeles at the end of last season.
Jonny Gomes
Unlike the other two signings, I'm fully on board with Jonny Gomes after taking some time to process the signing. Compared to other deals, 2 years at 10 million looks like pocket change for the Boston Red Sox. Gomes is built for Fenway Park, and should be able to hit left handed pitching extremely well in Boston. His power will be a nice addition to the middle of the lineup, and if he sees success, may even end up starting in left field at Fenway.
What This All Means
As a fan, you want to trust your general manager, trust your coaches, believe in your players. One thing the Red Sox did is bring in guys who fans will enjoy rooting for. Gomes and Victorino are extremely hard working, quality clubhouse guys. The types of guys you want on your team, playing every day, and mentoring rookies. Mike Napoli is your classic baseball slugger and fans will love some of his towering shots over the monster.
But is that all the Red Sox did? Build a roster filled with cliche players? At the beginning of the winter, Ben Cherington showed that he hoped to stay away from long-term financial mistakes that burdened Theo Epstein in his final years in Boston.
Instead, Cherington has thrown an abundance of money at players who most likely aren't worth their salaries. Are we supposed to feel good about this as Red Sox fans, since they aren't 6 year deals? After all, now the Red Sox only overpay players for three years instead of 7!
I can't help but shake the feeling that Cherington is doing a great job putting on a "show" for Red Sox Nation. Big contracts, players from winning teams, depth, all of these things are moves that winning teams make. The kinds of moves that solidify your confidence in a competitive baseball team.
Only there's one problem.
The Red Sox aren't a competitive baseball team yet, certainly not until they figure out their pitching dilemma. And the more I look at these moves, the more I see players who will "bridge" the Sox to the next phase of young prospects eager to make their mark on Boston. Is this all a game of charades put on by Red Sox front office?
If it is, they're certainly putting the time,effort, and resources into making us believe it.
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