Looking at the Pats Playoff Chances

The world is ending for the Patriots, right? Back-to-back weeks of poor performances, one more week before the playoffs, and a chance at a first round bye seriously in doubt. With tomorrow's match-up against the Dolphins being a potential precursor to their playoff success, I thought it would be a good idea to take a look at this team heading into the playoffs.

For starters, I don't believe last week against the Jaguars is any representation of the team heading into the playoffs. Many underestimated the effectiveness of Brandon Spikes, Alfonzo Dennard, and Aqib Talib. Of course, two of those names were not considered at the beginning of the season, which highlights how flimsy the defense is.

What's concerning is the Patriots simply have not shown they have overcome many of the problems which plague them each year in the playoffs, even during Super Bowl runs.

Tom Brady is the catalyst to this team. Say what you want about the improved running game, but against high level defenses, Stevan Ridley is not a reliable option. Ridley struggles against physical fronts with aggressive linebackers, essentially rendering him a non factor against the Bengals, Texans, and Ravens in the playoffs. Despite the improved running game, the success will lie in Danny Woodhead's ability to complement Brady out of the backfield.

Now this may sound crazy, and it may not even get a chance on the field, but I believe Danny Woodhead is the "giant killer" of the three running backs. And by that, I mean you can use Danny Woodhead against teams who pride themselves against stopping the run. Woodhead picked up 15 carries against the Ravens, 47 yards against the Broncos, and 61 yards with two scores against the 49ers. He's not a 25 carry player, but he's someone who get's lost behind his lineman and has the ability to get 3-4 yards a carry to jump start a sputtering offense.

What's worrisome is that the offense still shows general flaws which continue to haunt them against strong teams, and in the playoffs. For whatever reason, Patriots teams in big games still find a way to give up pressure to Tom Brady. In his last 3 games, Brady has been hit more than he had been previously all season. And the one thing Brady cannot handle is pressure in his face. I constantly hear that Brady is "great against 5 man pressures" which is accurate, but most pundits conveniently like to forget that Brady does not like pressure up the middle.

Teams who can generate pressure with 4 men will consistently be Brady's kryptonite, especially those who can do it with defensive tackles. Again, the Bengals are a team to watch in the playoffs. They have one of the best defensive lineman in the game with Geno Atkins, two 10+ sack guys, and are winners of 6 of their last 7. They play physical coverage, and have big wide receivers who will give Patriots CB's problems.

I believe the offensive will falter in the playoffs, it's all a matter of when. It may not be week 1 depending on the matchup, but an "offensive juggernaut" will not be able to function at a high level for an entire playoff.

Because of this, the onus will fall on the defense. A scary thought for many. This is where I believe the Patriots will crash and burn, because I feel the false-confidence in the defense will be short lived against talented offenses. This team still struggles in coverage, does not generate pressure well when asked to just bring 4 men, and recently proven to be surprisingly inconsistent against the run game.

That spells a recipe for disaster.

The only reason the Patriots defense has "won games" this year is because they've won the turnover differential by a wide margin. They are opportunistic, and if you make horrific mistakes, they will make you pay. However, against talented teams, mistakes will be few and far between. Do you believe Peyton Manning's Denver Broncos will be careless with the ball? I don't, and the idea of Manning flinging the pigskin around against the Patriots all Sunday afternoon is downright scary.

I don't think the Patriots will make it to the Super Bowl. In fact, I think they're hoping they don't have to play the Cincinnati Bengals in round 1, which could provide for a similar letdown like the Baltimore Ravens debacle of 2010. New England is on a crash course with the Broncos, which will make for compelling TV. But I don't believe New England is playing efficient, consistent football right now.

Unfortunately, 2012 will end as another year just a bit too short, which neither Tom Brady or Bill Belichick can afford as their careers wind to a close.

Why the Celtics are in Trouble

All Celtics fan know what's going on. They are fully aware of a talented, championship driven team which is severely underachieving. We see three losses to the Bucks, badly blown leads, and an underlying sense of worry grows.

But Celtics fans, for the most part, are doing a fantastic job acting as if they don't care. Outside of the true NBA fanatics, it seems as if Boston's slow start has gone somewhat under the radar. Sure, there are problems, but many fans and pundits seem to take the "relax, it will be fine" approach.

After all, it happened last year. An aging Celtics squad in a lockout shortened season plodded through the first half of the year, only to ignite in the second half and captivate Boston, ending in a wild playoff run. Surely, this team will do it again, right? After all, it's not how you start, it's how you finish.

Hopefully, everyone relying on past success will be right, and the Celtics are going through the motions.

But this isn't the same situation.

This year's team, as many know, have new pieces still trying to find their way in this offense. The Celtics, schematically speaking, are not an easy team to join. It takes time offensively and defensively. But through 26 games, the Celtics define mediocrity. They are 13-13, and even worse, show little signs that some of the new pieces, who figure to be crucial role players, are "getting it."

The regular season for Boston is a touchy, somewhat inexact science. As a coach, Doc Rivers' largest responsibility is keeping Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce fresh, limiting their minutes. This puts more of an onus on the role players as well as Rajon Rondo. What's concerning is that players such as Jason Terry, Courtney Lee, and Jeff Green are playing significantly below their ability.

Let's Do Some Math

Jeff Green, in 26 games, plays 22.6 minutes a night off the bench. He's averaging 9.6 points per game, shooting just 42%, and has a Player Efficiency Rating of just 11.92. Even worse, Green fails to execute simple defensive rotations, and generally is a non-factor on the boards.

Jason Terry is playing almost 30 minutes a night. But he's averaging only 9 shots a game, significantly lower than his 13 last year. As a result, Terry is averaging only 11 PPG, and some may say is being used incorrectly in Boston's system.

And Courtney Lee? Lee plays 24 minutes a night, averages just 6.7 points a game, and is shooting just 28% from 3. He is a career 38% shooter. His defensive skills are obvious, but he maddeningly makes mistakes from time to time and doesn't seem to be comfortable in his role in Boston.

What's even more frustrating is that many fans believe the team is having the same problems as last year. The defense will come in due time, and the team will be fine. But the Celtics, at no point last year, were ever this bad defensively or on the glass.

Through 26 games last season, opposing teams were averaging 86 points per game against Boston. Teams shot 41.8%, turned the ball over 13.8 times per game, and were averaging 41 rebounds per game.

Through 26 games this year, the Celtics are allowing 97.9 PPG through the same number of possessions, 94. Teams are shooting 45% and are pulling in 43 rebounds per game. Not a terrible rebounding increase, until you realize the Celtics are the 27th best rebounding team in the league.

And fans can't ask for the offense to carry this team, mainly because the offense has already made improvements over last years team. The Celtics are currently shooting almost 47% from the field, are averaging 7 more points a game than last year, and have an eFG% of .502, which is better than last year's team which FINISHED with a .492. Heck, Paul Pierce is averaging his highest point total since 2006, with 21 a game.

Moving Forward

Now you could crunch numbers for days, but what does it really tell you? From an outsider's point of view, I see a team that simply cannot play championship-level basketball in the areas that count. This is not a strong defensive team. Despite Kevin Garnett's presence, the Celtics still struggle with rotations and allow too many easy baskets. Rebounding wise, the Celtics need to get better, but how?

Right now, the Celtics are predicated on their role players, and the role players are not performing. Brandon Bass, owner of a shiny 43.6% field goal %, is playing so far below his 2011 level it's sickening. If he's not going to score, and he's not a tremendous rebounder, what is his purpose? If Jeff Green can't play better defense, and continues to look timid offensively, why should he continue to get minutes?

The team needs a wake up. Whether that's cutting playing time for unde-rperformers, or finally trading for a center so Garnett can return to his customary power forward position, remains to be seen. Personally? I'm trading Courtney Lee and potentially Brandon Bass as soon as Avery Bradley comes back, in return acquiring a viable center. This paves the way for Jared Sullinger to get more playing time, who sneakily has a decent jumper and can provide more rebounding off the bench.

But let's not act like Avery Bradley is the savior to the defensive woes. His offense is limited, and would surprise me if he can play 30 minutes a night. But the Celtics need tenacity, they need rebounding, and they need someone willing to get into the paint and make things happen. And if that guy isn't Rajon Rondo, then they may need to go out and find someone.

Through 26 games, don't let last year's record fool you. This Celtics team isn't where they need to be. And if they don't turn up the intensity in the next few weeks, Danny Ainge may turn up the heat in the locker room.

Incompetency Reigns Supreme in New York

There are plenty of ways to describe the 2012 for the New York Jets. Disappointing, discombobulated, spotlight-studded, embarrassing, butt-fumble, etc. But the overarching description of the entire franchise from top to bottom throughout the last 2 seasons? Utter incompetence.

The Jets do a lot of things well. They also do a lot of things incredibly poorly, and often use the national spotlight to showcase their most egregious flaws. The focus of this post is to shed light on all the mistakes made this season and last, ranging from their general manager to the lowest player on the depth chart.

However, in order to move forward, we must first move backwards. We must travel back to a time when all was well in the Canyon of Heroes, where the Jets were the kings of the Concrete Jungle, where a brash, arrogant Rex Ryan commandeered a 9-7 bunch to the AFC Championship Game.

The group of players under Rex Ryan were skilled and they were tough. This was the scariest defense in football, ranging from Bart Scott (owner of a 6 year, $48 million contract), 30 year old Kris Jenkins, to rookie Darrelle Revis and newly signed (to a 4 year, $27 million contract) Lito Sheppard. Offensively, the Jets essentially traded their draft for rookie QB Mark Sanchez. Sanchez, only a starter for one season at USC, completed 65% of his passes his final year in college, throwing for 34 TD's and 10INT's. The Jets surrounded him with explosive, yet controversial Braylon Edwards, put Thomas Jones in the backfield, and placed a nasty, physical offensive line in front of him.

The blueprint, at least at first, looked destined for success. The Jets reached the AFC Championship game two years in a row. Granted, they could never get over that final hump, but the team in place was successful. Mike Tannenbaum looked like a hero, drafting a young QB who could "manage games", turning back the clock on football with a run first, defensive team.

Now have you picked up on my subtle hints?

Because the first signs of incompetence started during the two-year peak of success in New York. Convinced they had a team ready for greatness, despite never reaching the Super Bowl and never finishing with more than 11 wins.

See, Mike Tannenbaum made poor financial decisions and became complacent as a general manager. As his defense aged, Tannenbaum never made the requisite moves to inject youth into his squad. There was never an attempt to balance young, uptempo players with the wise veterans. Kris Jenkins faded away due to injury, his defensive line aged without much help. Instead, Tannenbaum elected to saddle his team with immovable contracts and cap problems, making a quick rebuild downright impossible.

This is where we find the Jets in 2012. For the most part, the defense is a decently talented bunch that lacks the essential star power to thoroughly carry a team, especially with Darrelle Revis sidelined for most of the year. Offensively, the team is a mess. The Jets haven't added a worthwhile playmaker, instead piecing together a puzzle centered around the ever-regressing Mark Sanchez, who has no business making another start in the National Football League.

This is where the incompetence lies.

How can a team who once had a talented Braylon Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery replace that void with the likes of Clyde Gates and Jeremy Kurley, all while pampering the troublesome Santonio Holmes?

How can a team let the likes of Alan Faneca and Damien Woody walk out that door without finding decent replacements?

How can a general manager be so horrendously bad at drafting? Mike Tannenbaum has laid claim to the likes of Vernon Gholston, Vladimir Ducasse, and obviously Mark Sanchez. He's used other high level picks to draft Kyle Wilson, Kenrick Ellis, and potential busts Quinton Coples and Stephen Hill. Hopefully, for Jets fans, the latter two will improve in their second seasons. Heck, the Jets only made 3 total draft picks in 2009! Not mention cutting veteran locker room presence Tony Richardson in favor of John Conner, simply because the head coach liked his nickname.

The incompetence lies within the general manager.

Now lets look at Rex Ryan. Ryan is a great defensive coach, perhaps even the best in the league. But Rex Ryan cannot manage a 53-man roster, cannot help talent grow, and does not know how to manage his quarterback situation.

Handed Tim Tebow in the offseason in a move which flummoxed the entire coaching staff, Rex Ryan has wasted a talented player on his bench on a team in desperate need for talented play makers. Rex Ryan simply refuses to play Tebow, instead, up until this week, loyally hitching his carriage to Mark Sanchez's horses, as his future potentially goes up in flames because of this.

I'm not saying Tim Tebow could start on that team. But to get him 70 offensive snaps over 15 games, on a team with a horrendous quarterback, invisible passing game, and generally flat offense, is downright pathetic. How can a "ground and pound" team, a team built for the run, not find a way to use Tim Tebow's explosive playmaking ability with his legs to their advantage? Is Sexy Rexy so enamored with Mark Sanchez's ability to stare down receivers and throw interceptions in triple coverages that he won't even give Tebow a chance? No, we are left to believe that a 7th round draft pick out of Alabama, Greg McElroy, will somehow save this team and potentially be the answer at quarterback. The same Greg McElroy who Ryan wouldn't even ACTIVATE for the better part of the season.

Ryan has lost control of the locker room and obviously is not on the same page with his front office. This much is evident by the daily "unnamed" source leaking information from both the locker room and the offices of the Jets. Heck, this team has more underlying turmoil than the Boston Red Sox, a task that didn't seem possible just 6 months ago.

To a degree, the incompetence lies with Rex Ryan.

And last, but certainly not least, is the players. I don't think we need to go into much detail about how badly Mark Sanchez has let his organization down. How the defense has gone from the best in the league, to one of the better defenses, and struggles to stop the run. How Bart Scott has declined so quickly, and how Mohammed Wilkerson has been asked to carry the entire defense.

If the Jets truly do want to succeed, they have to put themselves in a position to win. Mark Sanchez is no longer the franchise quarterback, that much is evident. Rex Ryan needs to either learn how to get the most out of his young players, or hire coordinators who can have a bigger role in the coaching staff to do his job for him. They need to fire Mike Tannenbaum, who has been forced to replace talent with scrap heaps because the Jets do not have the money to spend on strong role players. Ironically, they do not have money because of Tannenbaum's ludicrous decision making with previous contracts.

This team has zero direction. The general manager doesn't know how to rebuild, and hasn't put together a team talented enough to win. The coach loves to talk, but hasn't been able to coach his team up these past two years. They still make timely mistakes, and still underperform. It's time for a total overhaul in New York, starting from the top and ending at the very bottom.

Evaluating the Ryan Dempster Signing

Hello all,

I know it's finals week for some which is a stressful time of year. Students spend too much time studying, not enough time sleeping, and generally fit the description of "stressed." Hopefully, you can use this as a reprieve, even if its only 10 minutes.

Somewhat constricted today in the MLB world due to the Josh Hamilton signing was news of Ryan Dempster landing a 2-year deal with the Boston Red Sox. He's scheduled to make $26.5 million over this time, and figures to fit in to the middle of the Red Sox rotation.

Now, I'm an armchair quarterback thick and thin. But even I can sense a bad thing coming a mile away. You ever get that pit in your stomach when the Red Sox make a free agent signing? Usually fans are at least incredibly optimistic until about the second week of April, when they realize that maybe player X isn't all that they cracked him up to be.

Well with Dempster, I don't even have that three-month period of elation. It was just immediate gloom and doom, something I like to call the "John Lackey" experience. Remember when Lackey was signed? Everyone looked around at each other with that "did this really just happen" look on their faces. No one was overly excited, and only the biggest homers could even attempt to convey any kind of excitement over giving Mr. Lackey a 5 year deal.

Unfortunately, things weren't always like this in Boston. There was a time where Theo Epstein was allowed pretty much free reign to sign who he felt was best. Obviously, when you're winning championships, the fan base will give you somewhat of leeway. Now? The Red Sox have taken a liking to dishing out large contracts to underachieving free agents. A trend which I feel will not end with Ryan Dempster.

Luckily, Dempster only received a two year deal. But at 13 million dollars a year, the price tag is high for a starter who at-best will provide #3 type stuff while eating innings. But you know what? In theory, I'm not even upset about the contract. What people don't understand is that the Red Sox have acres of space for cap room, and a two year deal at $13 million will not break the bank.

What bothers me is that the Red Sox chose to allocate this money to Ryan Dempster. Dempster is 36 years old and will enter his 17th season as a big league pitcher. Before the second half of last season, Dempster had never pitched in the American League.

After a brief period in his career between 2005-2007, where Dempster struggled to stay health, he generally has returned to form as a reliable 200+ inning pitcher. He throws a lot of strikes, gets his fair share of strikeouts, and has maintained the description of a "reliable pitcher."

Here's what concerns me. Dempster saw his velocity dip below 90 MPH for the first time last season, averaging 89.7 on his fastball. As a pitcher who pounds the strike zone, he relies almost exclusively on his slider to generate outs as his secondary pitch, throwing it 30% of the time. Now I'm no doctor, but a 36 year old pitcher who has survived on throwing strikes is now moving to the American League East, home of smaller ballparks and tough lineups, and relies on a slider to get outs. The slider, generally known as the most dangerous off speed pitch for elbows, is what allows Dempster to perform at a high level.

I find it difficult to expect Dempster to show up in Boston and maintain an ERA below 4.00 like he has since 2007, especially seeing as upon arrival in the AL West last season, Dempster pitched to the tune of a 5.09 ERA.

Statistically speaking, Dempster looks like a sure-bet to provide stability to the rotation. He throws strikes, he stays healthy, and has statistically shown to be a front of the rotation starter during his time with the Cubs. However, the move to the American League will hurt Dempster, leaving the Red Sox with another aging pitcher who will log somewhat ineffective innings. With both Lackey and Dempster now entrenched in the rotation in Boston, the Red Sox are finally finding their continuity.

Unfortunately, this continuity will not bring success to the 2013 Boston Red Sox.

Oh, yeah, and he's a career 0-4 in 5 games against the Yankees, with a 7.62 ERA.

Deconstructing The Winter Meetings

First and foremost, I'd like to apologize for not getting my thoughts out on the Red Sox winter earlier. School has decided to drop a load of work on me this week, making it difficult to do some writing just for fun. Thankfully, we've cleared that hurdle and it should be smooth sailing up until finals.

Over in New York there's been little news. In Boston, the stove's been turned up to full throttle, with the Red Sox being linked to virtually every possible free agent and trade scenario at the 2012 Winter Meetings. This has brought both plenty of fun and plenty of agony, as commander in chief Ben Cherington has shown a propensity to swing big deals in only his second season at the helm.

So far, Cherington has done some things well (Jonny Gomes, David Ross), made the somewhat obvious move (Mike Napoli), and potentially made a large mistake (Shane Victorino). Lets take a look at each move independently.

Mike Napoli

Napoli is a move I thought had to be made from the beginning of the off-season. He fills a gigantic need, 1B, and provides some thump to a lineup that suddenly looked very weak compared to other American League teams. I like Napoli as a player, if for no other reason than every time he's faced Boston, he's mashed. Napoli is a career .306 hitter in Fenway Park, adding a .710 slugging percentage, a ridiculously high .404 in isolated power, and an OPS north of 1.

He also provides versatility, which I believe is a factor overlooked by many Red Sox fans. One of the big goals of Cherington and co. was to bring in players who provided depth in multiple options. Napoli can play first, catch, and even DH. Jonny Gomes can play both corner outfield positions, and Victorino can slide over to center field without a hitch. This helps combat the injury bug which has plagued the Red Sox each of the last three seasons.

My main concern with Napoli is the money, coupled with how severe of a drop off his stats took last year. Napoli regressed significantly, and was rewarded with a 3 year deal worth $39 million. But in the end, what can you do? The market is so inflated that a right handed bat with power will cost you.

Shane Victorino

As much as I feel the Mike Napoli signing will work out in Boston, I struggle to comprehend the Shane Victorino signing. I understand he's a switch hitter, I understand he's versatile, and I understand he's a strong defensive glove. What I DON'T understand is how a 32 year old outfielder with deteriorating skills can command a 3 year deal, also worth 39 million.

Now I don't know if the rumor that Cody Ross wanted 3 years 25 million is true. For arguments sake, we'll say that's a rough ballpark of a contract Cody Ross would get. Can someone help me understand how Victorino is a better option? Sure, he's a left handed bat. He also hit .229 against right handers last year and is notoriously better facing left handed pitching.

Best case scenario for Victorino is that he uses his ability to hit for power in the gaps and carves out a niche in Boston, securing the bottom half of the lineup. His career averages indicate he's quietly pretty decent at hitting for power, and should still be somewhat of a threat on the base paths.

Worst case? The Red Sox just paid 39 million for a platoon player. By year 2 of this contract, Victorino could easily struggle to start every day in Boston, especially if he shows a lack of plate discipline like he did in Los Angeles at the end of last season.

Jonny Gomes

Unlike the other two signings, I'm fully on board with Jonny Gomes after taking some time to process the signing. Compared to other deals, 2 years at 10 million looks like pocket change for the Boston Red Sox. Gomes is built for Fenway Park, and should be able to hit left handed pitching extremely well in Boston. His power will be a nice addition to the middle of the lineup, and if he sees success, may even end up starting in left field at Fenway.

What This All Means

As a fan, you want to trust your general manager, trust your coaches, believe in your players. One thing the Red Sox did is bring in guys who fans will enjoy rooting for. Gomes and Victorino are extremely hard working, quality clubhouse guys. The types of guys you want on your team, playing every day, and mentoring rookies. Mike Napoli is your classic baseball slugger and fans will love some of his towering shots over the monster.

But is that all the Red Sox did? Build a roster filled with cliche players? At the beginning of the winter, Ben Cherington showed that he hoped to stay away from long-term financial mistakes that burdened Theo Epstein in his final years in Boston.

Instead, Cherington has thrown an abundance of money at players who most likely aren't worth their salaries. Are we supposed to feel good about this as Red Sox fans, since they aren't 6 year deals? After all, now the Red Sox only overpay players for three years instead of 7!

I can't help but shake the feeling that Cherington is doing a great job putting on a "show" for Red Sox Nation. Big contracts, players from winning teams, depth, all of these things are moves that winning teams make. The kinds of moves that solidify your confidence in a competitive baseball team.

Only there's one problem.

The Red Sox aren't a competitive baseball team yet, certainly not until they figure out their pitching dilemma. And the more I look at these moves, the more I see players who will "bridge" the Sox to the next phase of young prospects eager to make their mark on Boston. Is this all a game of charades put on by Red Sox front office?

If it is, they're certainly putting the time,effort, and resources into making us believe it.